As we predicted on Friday, spiraling air traffic disruptions proved sufficient motivation for eight moderate Democrat Senators to join Republicans in a 60-40 vote (exceeding filibuster threshold) on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the U.S. government shutdown. Under the agreement, Congress would pass full-year funding for the departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs and (of course) Congress itself, while funding other agencies through 1/30/26. The bill would provide pay for furloughed government workers, resume federal payments to states and localities and recall agency employees laid off during the shutdown.
For the twelfth consecutive month, China’s PBOC increased its gold reserves, adding 30k ounces to a total holding of 74.09M ounces. Separately, China’s state-backed Gold Association reported domestic gold consumption totaled 683t during Jan.-Sept. ’25, (-7.95% y/y). During the 9-mos. span, purchase of gold bars and coins rose 24.6% to 352.1T (51.6% of total consumption), while consumption of gold jewelry fell 32.5% to 270t.
China suspended a Dec. ’24 U.S. export ban on certain “dual-use” minerals (with civilian and military applications) such as gallium (China accounts for 94% of global production), germanium (83%) and antimony (48%) until 11/27/26.
Total Chinese exports contracted 1.1% in Oct. (vs. +3.0% est. & Sept. +8.3%), worst performance since Feb. Chinese shipments to U.S. fell 25.2% y/y, while those to EU (+0.9%) and South East Asia (+11.0%) failed to compensate.
November U. of Mich. Sentiment sank to 50.3 (vs. 53.0 est. & Oct. 53.6), outside June ‘22’s 50.0, the lowest reading since 1978. Survey results remain highly skewed by political affiliation, with Republican sentiment measuring 91.9, Independents at 45.0 and Democrats at 33.2.
Euro Stoxx 50 +1.8%, S&P futures +0.9% and Nasdaq futures +1.4%. 10-year Treasury yield +3.5bps (4.132%). DXY dollar index -0.08%, spot gold +2.35% and spot silver +3.65%.
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