By a 222-209 vote, the U.S. House passed a continuing funding resolution through 1/30/26 and President Trump ended the government shutdown by signing the bill into law. We find it the ultimate reflection of Congressional dysfunction that all that emerged from the record 43-day shutdown is a 78-day continuing resolution! Enjoy the holidays because this high-wire act will be back by February.
Nick Timiraos penned a WSJ article highlighting that FOMC division has reached a level unprecedented in Chair Powell’s eight-year tenure. In September’s dot plot, a slim majority of 10-of-19 FOMC participants penciled in rate cuts in Oct. and Dec. Since then, more hawkish views have gained considerable traction, with October meeting minutes (released 11/19) highlighting “strongly differing views.”
Retiring Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted yesterday that all three of the price surveys favored by the Fed’s Economic Survey Research Center during the federal data shutdown “point decisively in one direction—continued upward pressure on costs and prices…Firms in our survey expect to raise prices well into 2026, and by substantially more than 2 percent.”
Fed division heightens the importance and impact of November economic data. Beginning with a 10/1 blackout, only the September CPI was published during the government shutdown. The BLS will soon publish a release schedule for backlogged economic data, with current emphasis on releasing the September employment report (by 11/19) and then shifting focus to production of accurate November data, with the White House suggesting October reports for inflation and employment might never be released.
In a 50-page report from the bipartisan House Select Committee on China, U.S. lawmakers accused China of “manipulating global critical minerals prices” as an economic weapon to expand its manufacturing sector and its geopolitical influence. Ya’ think?
White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett estimated the government shutdown will shave 1%-to-1.5% from Q4 GDP, cutting the administration’s prior 3% real GDP estimate roughly in half.
-CPI @ 8:30 am (est. +0.2% m/m & +3.0% y/y). DXY dollar index -0.2%, spot gold +1% and spot silver +1.3% (gold/silver ratio at 78.5).
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