Wealthion Macro Bites 11/18/25
Inflation watch: The U.S. is contemplating $2,000 stimulus checks. Japan is preparing a $110B stimulus package. China has approved a $1.4T stimulus package. The Fed ends QT on 12/1. The U.S. is issuing $1.9T of Treasuries annually. Canada is restarting its QE program. Global M2 money supply stands at a record $137T. Global rate cuts exceed 320+ over past 24 months. Is another inflationary outbreak just around the corner?
Somewhat unsurprisingly, Fed Governor Christopher Waller (leading Trump candidate for Fed Chair) said U.S. companies have moved from the “no hire, no fire” mode to actively considering layoffs in the face of weaker demand and potential AI productivity gains. “I’m not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly. My focus is on the labor market.”
Fed credibility has taken another hit on a U.S. Office of Government Ethics report that Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s sudden August resignation stemmed from discovery of multiple (unreported) personal financial transactions which violated the Fed’s ethics rules. Of course, Governor Kugler’s repeated trading violations follows the forced resignations of Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan in ’21, and Governor Richard Clarida in ’22, also for personal trading improprieties. Stewards of the world’s reserve currency?
The Canadian Parliament on Monday voted in favor of Prime Minister Carney’s first budget by a razor thin 170-168 margin achieved only through abstention of a handful of opposition legislators. Carney’s budget proposes doubling the fiscal deficit to counter U.S. tariffs and fund defense and housing programs, while reducing the number of federal government employees and adopting fewer austerity measures than some had feared.
On Monday, the NY Fang+ Index closed (16,232) below its 50-DMA (16,351) and the S&P 500 closed (6,672) below its 50-DMA (6,707) for the first time since 4/23/25 and 4/30/25.
–After trading as low as $3,998 overnight, spot gold ($4,035) -0.2% and spot silver -0.2%. Euro Stoxx 50 -1.45%, S&P futures -0.45% and Nasdaq futures -0.55%. 10-year Treasury yield -3.9bps (4.102%).
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